Results and analysis of Final draw for first semi final qualifiers – Good news for Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan to perform 19th in the final.

Last night the draw took place to decide where the qualifiers from the first semi final will perform in the Eurovision Final on Saturday. This is how the final running order currently looks:

1. Finland
4. Lithuania
5. Hungary
9. Greece
10. Russia
11. France
12. Italy
13. Switzerland
14. United Kingdom
16. Germany
19. Azerbaijan
21. Iceland
22. Spain
24. Serbia
25. Georgia

A country’s place in the performance order can have a dramatic impact on their chances. The second spot is notorious for producing bad results while entries performed nearer the end tend to have an advantage. Let’s have a look at which spot previous winners performed in:

2010: 22nd – Germany
2009: 20th – Norway
2008: 24th – Russia
2007: 17th – Serbia
2006: 17th – Finland
2005: 19th – Greece
2004: 10th – Ukraine
2003: 4th – Turkey
2002: 23rd – Latvia
2001: 20th – Estonia

So we can see that performing in the last 4 to 7 songs does appear to provide an advantage. Even the introduction of the juries hasn’t affected this phenomenon. The strongest country in this pot at the moment is Azerbaijan. They pulled off a confident and, as the UK commentator said, ‘beautiful’ performance on Tuesday and it now looks a strong contender to win.

Azerbaijan (performing 18th) in the First Semi Final

Other favourites France and UK languish behind in 11th and 14th respectively. Will this damage their chances?

Places 17, 18, 20 and 23 will be filled by qualifiers from semi final 2 so maybe Ireland, Estonia, Sweden, Denmark or Bosnia will provide the winner.


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