Love Eurovisoin has been following the betting odds for the last two months. They’ve been very good at predicting the winner over the last few years but there are always one or two countries that catch them out. Last year it was Greece who they had languishing at odds of 32/1 until a week or two before the contest.
Here are the Paddypower odds for the final and a quick analysis of how those odds have changed over the last two months. One note to remember, the bookies odds aren’t only based on what they think will happen on the night. The odds also start to tighten as more people start betting on a particular country.
Norway’s have been broadly steady since the beginning. Two months ago Paddypower was offering 7/4 for a Norwegian win and they’ve slowly tightened since.
Same story with Greece. On 17th March Paddypower were offering 4/1.
United Kingdom 10/1
Two months ago UK were languising at 18/1 and a few weeks later the odds have lengthened to 20/1! With the UK’s recent Eurovision record you can forgive Paddypower and the gamblers for not backing them. On 10th May the odds shortened to 14/1 and now we see they are joint 3rd favourite in the bookies’ odds.
Turkey’s odds have been broadly steady, alternating between 10/1 and 8/1.
The only country to momentarily be ahead of Norway in the odds, on 17th March Paddypower had Azerbaijan at 2/1! By 22nd March it had changed to 10/1 and has mostly stayed there ever since.
Bosnia & Herzegovina 16/1
Now here’s an example of one they didn’t see. Two months ago Paddypower had Bosnia at 33/1. Their odds quickly began to shorten until they reached 8/1 on 7th May. They stayed there for a while but have now fallen to 16/1.
Ukraine has see-sawed a bit. Two months ago they were on 25/1, then lengthened to 50/1, then shot up dramatically to 16/1, then fell to 20/1 and now stand at 18/1.
Iceland is another one they didn’t see coming. Two months ago 50/1, then 33/1, then 28/1, then 12/1 after the first semi-final. They’ve now fallen back to 18/1.
Ok you’re probably getting bored with reading all this now. Let’s just say they’ve been broadly steady. I won’t say anything unless there’s been a big change now.
Germany has seen the biggest jump of any country. Two months ago they were down at 150/1 to win the final. There they stayed for a few weeks until Dita von Tesse’s involvement was confirmed and they shot up to 20/1.
Oh dear, you know things are bad when you’re on the same odds as Germany. What happened? Two months ago Chiara was one of the favourites on 10/1 but she has slowly fallen, although has taken a big drop in the last few days.
I don’t get this, I would have had Armenia as one of the favourites still. They’ve done consistently well in the last few years and I’ve heard many people say it’s one of their favourites. Starting off at 100/1 two months ago they rose to 80/1, then 33/1 and by the end of the first semi-final they stood at 25/1.
Poor Sweden, another bookies’ favourite that have been thrown on the scrapheap. Starting off at 16/1 they jumped to 12/1, then down to 14/1, then down down to 20/1 and now down down down down to 50/1!
Now, I’ve just said 50/1 is bad for Sweden, but it represents a huge jump for Albania who were down at 200/1 two months ago.
Spain 66/1 – down from 25/1 two months ago.
Moldova 80/1 – up from 100/1 recently, but down from 50/1 two months ago.
Romania 100/1 – Languished at 125/1 but then suddenly jumped to 40/1 a few days ago. Now settled back.
Russia 100/1 – down from 20/1 two months ago, quickly lengthened in the last few days.
Lithuania 100/1 – down from 50/1.
Israel 125/1 – was 80/1 for a long time and then jumped to 33/1. Plummeted to 100/1 after they drew the cursed 2nd place in the final, despite now having support from Paul McCartney.
Croatia 150/1 – an improvement on the 250/1 Paddypower had been offering before their surprise qualification, but it leaves them bottom of the pile in the final.
Odds taken from Paddypower